The Coalition of the Swilling

Weather forecasting -- especially when dealing with predictions more than 5 days out -- is more of an art than a science. Forecasters don't "blow it"......the model was wrong, is all. That, in and of itself, is an important datum for improving the model.

No, journalists are the ones that "blow it", by not understanding what they are writing about, or going for the attention grabbing headline, no matter how misleading.

So Drudge can blow me.

What I want them to admit is that THEY DON'T KNOW. I'm tired of all these 'scientists' screaming about Gerbil Warmongering and how there is consensus that it will cause all this horrific weather.

Except when it doesn't.

Like most things, we can learn from the wisdom of MST3K -

Girl - Do you think the weather will hold?
Servo - NO, I think it's just going to STOP.

Because he can't answer that question.

No, The Goreacle™ won't answer the question. Because it can be answered. You just did.

What I want them to admit is that THEY DON'T KNOW.

Mr. B, I'm going to take the devil's advocate role here.....because the scientists are in fact saying they don't know, they just aren't using simple words. Semantics plays a big part here, and it ain't a pretty part. Not to mention the MSM has their finger in the pie.

Anyone describing the potential of an event in terms of odds is expressing their ignorance of the outcome.

For example, calling "heads or tails" in a coin toss is normally considered a guess of the results, and you have a 50% chance of being right.

But that "50% chance" also means you may be wrong. In other words, no one knows the outcome of the coin toss, no matter how many computer models you run. Don't laugh, gambling models are a good way to teach programming and statistics.

If you read the *original* forecasts and/or outlooks published by the boffins with this principal firmly in mind, all they are offering is a educated guess. AT BEST.

Ignore the MSM articles.....those are grossly oversimplified with the intent of capturing headlines.

Besides which, the boffins will not say "I don't know" because of the human factor. Everyone wants an accurate weather forecast. That's not possible more than 5 days out (and even those are iffy), but if the meteorologists start being negative, the public will dial up their local astrologer. Or witches coven. So the scientists offer their best guess, which is promptly and mistakenly read as a rock solid prediction.

This is incredibly frustrating to the public, who don't understand the uncertainies in meteorolgy. Hell, who don't WANT to understand it! But it's the simple truth.

And it's not a new problem. For example.....

In the days before massive computer networks, when satellite imagery was limited to a few locations, and weather forecasting was strictly a local effort, my father worked as a flight station specialist for the FAA. Way back then, the FAA worked with the NWS to develop and announce weather forecasts for pilots. Since this was pre-INTERNET, the local flight stations would often provide daily weather forecasts to local radio stations, and to callers on the phone. Me, I found it easier just to look out the window now and then.

Still, as a consequence, people would often call the local airport for the latest weather forecasts. One day, a man calls when Dad is on duty. The conversation went something like this:

Dad: "Good morning, this is the XXXXX Flight Service Station, Jerry XXXXXX speaking. How may I help you?"

Caller: "I need to know the weather, and I don't want a long discussion about the chances involved. I just want you to answer this question with a 'Yes' or 'No': Will it rain today?"

Dad: "Yes."

Caller: "Thank you. That's all I wanted to hear."

Dad: "Excuse me, please don't hang up yet."

Caller: "Yes?"

Dad: "I told you that it would rain today. I didn't tell you where in the world it would rain. Good by." [CLICK]

Yes, Dad hung up on the cretin, and the guy complained to the station chief, who tried to explain just why the question isn't a "yes" or "no" answer. Which came down, "We don't know exactly what will happen, we can only offer probabilities."

But the basic problem remains to this day. And it will be around until we have a nearly complete understanding of the weather system on this planet. I have no idea how far along we are on that quest.....I just want to point out that, thanks to chaos theory, it's possible that we will *never* be able to forecast accurately more than a few days.

So expect to hear "I don't know" expressed in technojargon for the rest of your life.

Oh, as far as the fear mongers are concerned....they aren't scientists, they're bureaucrats with a science degree, scrabbling for funds. Button sorters and bean counters with a touch for the theatrical, the lot of them.

Greetings to all.

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