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December 01, 2008

Uh-Oh

India has raised it's security level to "war level"


MUMBAI (Reuters) - The fallout from a three-day rampage that killed nearly 200 people in Mumbai threatened on Sunday to unravel India's improving ties with Pakistan and prompted the resignation of India's security minister.

New Delhi said it was raising security to a "war level" and had no doubt of a Pakistani link to the attacks, which unleashed anger at home over the intelligence failure and the delayed response to the violence that paralyzed India's financial capital.

And of course the Pakistanis are trying to drag us in


Officials in Islamabad have warned any escalation would force it to divert troops to the Indian border and away from a U.S.-led anti-militant campaign on the Afghan frontier.

Not a good situation.

Posted by Mr. Bingley at December 1, 2008 06:53 AM

Comments

Actually, if there is a war between Pakistan and India, it will make it only better for us to justify pacifying the Al Qaeda controlled provinces that Pakistan has ceded.

Posted by: Skyler at December 1, 2008 11:03 AM

Is India a NATO member? Maybe they could help out in Afghanistan, a couple of divisions of their best troops...

Posted by: mojo at December 1, 2008 11:14 AM

Considering they're both nuke-armed, this scares me a good bit. Especially since Pakistan apparently "dissed" India by sending a lower-level guy than originally promised to try to work things out.

I wonder how far the particles from a nuke explosion travel, and what threats they pose the rest of us? I guess it's time for me to stock up on dry milk and iodine tablets...

Posted by: ricki at December 1, 2008 04:39 PM

Well, depending on where the nukes go . . .

If they land in the northern Al Qaeda governened provinces, then I say hooray for justice.

Posted by: Skyler at December 1, 2008 04:43 PM

Heh, no argument there, Skyler!

Ricki, it depends on where the nukes go, how many they use, what the nukes are made of, and what the winds are doing at the time of the, ummmmmm, "exchange".

Still, without going into detail, fallout will surely work it's out of the the Indian subcontinent. Depending on the above details, some of the Middle East and Asia would be at risk. Some might make it as far as Japan or Africa, but not much past that, and that would have to come down as rainfall, probably highly diluted.

That's what I *think*, anyway; boffins with better data and rudimentary models can give much better predictions. That's what I recall from the above ground test data of the 1950s, anyway.

As an example, take a look at the explosion of Mount Saint Helen (about as close to a nuclear exchange as I care to see, being equivalent to 27,000 Hiroshima type bombs). Dust from that fell all across North America, and was observed world wide in very small quantities. The same has been true for other volcanic eruptions. But those events were IMMENSELY larger than any nuclear exchange might be (said with fingers crossed, and complete ignorance of what the Pakis and Indians have in their nuclear stockpiles).

With radiation, the true villains are particle types and their density; the main defenses against fallout are distance and time. Should any reach North America, the effects ought to be minimal to none.

Please note that I said "ought to be". Panic can go far in paralyzing a nation (which is a nearly universal reaction to the word "radiation"). Plus that residual radiation could make its way into our food supplies (IIRC, some isotopes are especially fond of products containing calcium). Plus I am not a boffin, just a bloke with odd hobbies.

That's not especially reassuring, I know, but the news isn't as bad one might think. Not good, but not all that bad.

Posted by: The_Real_JeffS at December 1, 2008 07:55 PM

And besides, Ricki, JeffS is closer to the Pacific than we are, so he (and dear Ken) have volunteered to filter the air for us...

Damn upstanding fellows, they are.

Posted by: Mr. Bingley at December 2, 2008 06:12 AM

Thanks, Jeff. I just remember growing up, after Three Mile Island my dad wouldn't buy milk for a while (concern that cattle might have gotten some of the particles and passed it to their milk). He might have done the same after Chernobyl but I was a self-absorbed teenager then and wasn't paying as much attention. And whenever there was any big pollution scare (PCBs in Michigan in the 70s...) he was extremely cautious about buying produce or meat that originated in that area. (FWIW, my dad's a geologist so I expect he knows about such things and wasn't just overreacting.)

Posted by: ricki at December 2, 2008 08:19 AM

Remind me to send you some apples, Mr. Bingley! :-D

Ricki, your father was behaving sensibly. Those were the more reasonable precautions that he could have taken under those circumstances.

Posted by: JeffS (Formerly known as The_Real_JeffS) at December 2, 2008 09:27 AM

Yum!

Posted by: Mr. Bingley at December 2, 2008 09:38 AM

I'll just drink my glowing milk, uncomplaining.

Like a MAN.

Posted by: nightfly at December 2, 2008 11:43 AM

Think of the energy you'll save, 'fly. No more lights in the 'fridge!

Posted by: The_Real_JeffS at December 2, 2008 12:14 PM