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October 19, 2005
WTF? Wilma CAT 5!
South Floridians: Get Out NOW While there's still gas.
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT HURRICANE WILMA HAS BECOME AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED 175 MPH WINDS AND ESTIMATED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 892 MB. THIS IS THE LOWEST PRESSURE OBSERVED IN 2005 AND IS EQUIVALENT TO THE MINIMUM PRESSURE OF THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.
AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE REPORTED 884 MB...THE LOWEST MINIMUM PRESSURE EVER MEASURED IN A HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN...THIS VALUE SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION UNTIL CALIBRATED...
Update:
PRONOUNCED TROCHOIDAL OSCILLATIONS ARE BEING SUPERIMPOSED ON A MEAN MOTION OF 300/6.
I have no idea what that means, but it can't be good.
Updated Update: Gawddammit I hate when they say "however..."
HOWEVER...RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS AND NOGAPS ARE SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF A THREAT TO NEW ENGLAND. IN THIS SCENARIO...WILMA BECOMES CAPTURED BY A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN FOUR DAYS. THE ECMWF AND IN PARTICULAR THE UKMET...BOTH OLDER RUNS...DO NOT YET INDICATE THIS. THE FIVE-DAY OFFICIAL FORECAST POINT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IS STILL MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND THAN THE GFDL...GFS...AND NOGAPS GUIDANCE.
Posted by Mr. Bingley at October 19, 2005 01:47 PM
Comments
Yeee, Jesus. Pack the car, George. The saving grace so far is that she has such a tiny core (hurricane winds only 15 miles out). The downside is she has days and days to grow up.
Posted by: tree hugging sister at October 19, 2005 07:58 AM
Well it seems that the himmacane folks reckon she'll break down a bit before she hits; the longe range forecast is showing her CAT 2/3 or so at landfall.
Posted by: Mr. Bingley at October 19, 2005 08:08 AM
It's like FARK says: "Run Florida! Run!"
Posted by: Cullen at October 19, 2005 08:24 AM
Heh, yeah. A guy in my office just called from Naples. He said all the roads going north are going to be clogged up, so they're going to Miami...
Not sure if that's far enough.
Posted by: Mr. Bingley at October 19, 2005 08:27 AM
MIAMI? Is he NUTS???
Posted by: tree hugging sister at October 19, 2005 08:39 AM
Good lord. There is plenty of time to go north. Just gonna have to put up with moving very slowly.
Posted by: Cullen at October 19, 2005 08:40 AM
I saw a track that says bye bye Tampa. I hope not. WunderKid3 has her foot dr. appointment in two weeks. If it hits, I hope the hospital is still there.
Maybe a good wind will knock this thing down a bit.
Posted by: WunderKraut at October 19, 2005 08:55 AM
Yeah, it seems he is nuts at this point.
He does work in the cocoa department, so I guess he's "pods"...
Posted by: Mr. Bingley at October 19, 2005 08:58 AM
And in breaking news, Florida changes its name to "Job."
Posted by: Lisa at October 19, 2005 09:01 AM
Oh, man! Maybe this monster will fizzle out, huh?
Posted by: The Real JeffS at October 19, 2005 09:37 AM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 150 KT WITH GUSTS TO 185 KT.
That's gust to 213 mph, for you and me.
wow.
Posted by: Mr. Bingley at October 19, 2005 10:48 AM
What a teeny, tiny, eeville looking little eye. Hurricane winds out 50 miles now.
Posted by: tree hugging sister at October 19, 2005 11:01 AM
Gulf Coast residents should be put on the endangered species list.
Posted by: Rob at October 19, 2005 02:51 PM
BTW, I just thought I should mention that despite being highly tempted to act upon the easy joke evident in tying: And in breaking news, Florida changes its name to "Job.", to hurricane blowing winds and the shape of Florida together...
I did resist.
Posted by: Cullen at October 19, 2005 05:05 PM
Most do expect it to die down a bit in strength. We'll survive a 3, probably even a low 4. But I agree with tree hugging sister - just think of all the neat things we could block if we were an endangered species (cue evil laugh...).
On a more serious note: some may be able to evacuate Florida - but if you thought the traffic jams heading out of the Houston area were ridiculous - consider the idea of evacuating the southern half of a WHOLE STATE with only two major highways - one on the east coast, and one on the west.
Posted by: Kathy K at October 19, 2005 08:01 PM
Be positive, Kathy! "Nowhere to go but up!"
Posted by: tree hugging sister at October 19, 2005 10:22 PM
"RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS AND NOGAPS ARE SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF A THREAT TO NEW ENGLAND."
I leave Florida for THIS?! [inseart Howard Dean "yeeeaaaargh"]
Posted by: Dave J at October 20, 2005 02:53 AM
Ugh! Tracking this storm from the Middle East has some advantages. Good luck, folks!
Posted by: The Real JeffS at October 20, 2005 06:32 AM